Hawaii +19 Over USC?
USC Hawaii

Posted May 1, 2013

How do you feel about the early lines put out today on NBC Sports? Too high? Too Low? Just right?

Special thanks to sarvicdar from the forums for turning me onto this article. I must admit that typically I'm not a betting man. Football has taught me many lessons over the years including...Vegas always wins. Always. Still, if this is something you're interested in, then you probably took special interest in this article: http://collegefootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/04/30/surprise-Alabama-opens-week-1-as-22-point-favorite-over-vatech/ highlighting some of the week 1 college football lines.

There were a lot of surprising lines here. UNC only getting 14.5? LSU only +6 over TCU? I know it's way way way too early to make any of these calls but these numbers both seem off. Hawaii vs USC too falls into this category, though I don't know if I can fairly say whether it's because I think the line is too high or too low. +19. That's what Hawaii is getting. And it's not even the highest of the article (Va Tech is getting 22 against Alabama.) The problem with the line here is the incredibly inconsistent juxtaposition between USC's talent and their on-field production. Last season they finished 7-6, and only because they won those games where they were huge favorites (their 6 losses, to Stanford, Arizona, Oregon, UCLA, Notre Dame and Georgia Tech were to ranked or competitive teams.)

So while Hawaii would technically fall into the "beatable" team category (even this season when they have more talent then last) it's hard to say how USC will play. They are trying to break in a new QB, a new WR, and almost an entire secondary, while also trying to pick up the pieces from three straight losses to end the 2012 season. And that's where I think Hawaii can capitalize. The important thing for them is to not be scared. When a Moniz-led team put up 36 in the 2010 opener, I think it was in part because everyone realized..."hey wait. USC? This isn't USC. These are a bunch of frauds in a USC uniform." And that can still be the case here. USC has the same coach (Kiffin) and an inner turmoil that it hasnt seen for at least a decade (its last year pre Carson Palmer). If ever there was going to be a time for an upset (or at least a cover) I think this game will be it. Stay Tuned.

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